Stats

(WMB4X) Pain in the Analysts

I would like to think myself creative (but I’ve tried and it didn’t work) I was never too good with numbers (which is why I work in stats now) there are people who love the numbers, get lost in the spreadsheets and can draw a pie chart quicker than I can draw my curtains. They love the fact that there is no grey area with numbers, it’s either right or wrong off or on. Binary list of 0’s and 1’s.

Know your numbers and you can make some serious cash. As a banker, a broker or Carol “I’ll sell anything” Vorderman. You can even be a market analyst, a gazer into the financial crystal ball. These people are telling us what we want before we even know we want it, and they have huge influence over the finances of the world and where money is invested, what with buy-ratings and the like.

In the world of business an equal amount of creativity and market nous is needed to make it. We can’t all be Jonny Ive. However it is important to get right people in the right roles. Money people, are not experts on lets say consumer electronics.

In 2008 analysts said that Apple needed to make a Netbook. (Remember those)

Netbook popularity in 2008 (PriceGrabber)

In 2010 Apple released the iPad, which is definitely not a Netbook. The rest as they say is history. Now in 2013 analysts say Apple need a iWatch, an actual Apple TV (not just the great set top box) a larger iPhone, a Smaller iPad, a larger iPad, A social network, a video games console the list is endless.

Apple may or may not make some of these things. But thanks to analysts we now get stupid headlines like this “Apple TV set reportedly delayed to at least 2015 over content deal trouble” So a product that hasn’t been announced is delayed. I mean even First Great Western couldn’t be accused of running a late train if it wasn’t announced. So what harm do these stories do?

Share price dip. These analyst wet dreams can wipe billions off companies share price. Why should we care? Well companies may rush things to market to keep the analysts happy and share prices high. Meaning we get to spend our hard earned on something thats half finished. Also analysts aren’t creative, they are more like a jealous neighbour “Keeping up with the Joneses.” ‘Well they have one, so you should too.’

All companies (Apple Inc included) are worryingly conforming to market pressure. This may lead to a very boring future. Like letting Bob from Accounts design your website. Scary very scary.


Please visit the Resident Weeble His 8 book deal with Penguin has been delayed

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Page 101

In commemoration of my 101st post (I’ll stop recognising post numbers soon I promise) I thought I’d add another page to my blog. Oh yes through the looking glass here people. Much like Room 101, TV/Radio show in the UK where guests send things they hate, Things listed on this page will be things that currently hated by yours truly. You may or may not agree but such is life. Hopefully I will write compelling arguments so you to can join in my hate. Maybe it will be a good experience for all of us.

I thought I’d write the opening entries here so that you dear reader didn’t have to click that extra time.. cos I hate that.

Things sent to Page 101. In no particular order, cos hatred does not work like that, hatred is a twisted ball of grrrr and cannot be constrained by any numerical system.

Chris Martin:

Him from Coldplay. Coldplay is music for people who have no opinion on music. The audio equivalent of magnolia paint. Magnolia is natural it stirs no emotion whatsoever, it sells by the bucket load, yet no-one really talks of it.

In a musical conversation if you say “I like Coldplay” there will be one of two responses “Oh” and no more is said. Or from likeminded (non musically opinionated) person “Me too.” And then no more is said.

The leader of the bland.. sorry band Chris Martin. Your band front man should be a figure head, Mick Jagger, Jimi Hendrix, Robert Plant, James Hetfield hell even Bono. A guy or girl able to whip up the crowd into a frenzy. Martin able to whip up the crowd into mediocrity.

The Edge:

Whilst we are on a musical tirade. The Edge a man who doesn’t so much play his guitar as program it. When I was a kid I had a toy guitar that had 12 preset riffs available at the press of a button. As a teenager I tried to learn the guitar and failed (even though my guitar is still in my lounge, one day it will sing) The Edge must have had the same toy, because every piece of guitar in every single U2 song is processed repeater pedal crap.

Also, I was recently watching a Rory Gallagher documentary. The Edge appeared, and apparently was best friends with Rory in his youth. Gallagher is dead now, so he cannot confirm, nor does The Edge have pictures. Slash on the other hand, has pictures. Strange that.

Pointless Stats:

My working life is dominated by stats. Numerics, forcast models. I spend hours each day bringing together all this stuff for it to be sent in an email and ignored by people on four times my salary. When they are gracious enough to read what I’ve put I am bombarded by inane requests for commentary explaining what it all means. Because they can’t understand the charts.

Charts which they requested. Charts which I informed them were too packed with crap to be of any use to anyone other than a abstract art exhibition. When they finally understand, they want me to massage the figures to represent something that isn’t there. Thus rendering this whole exercise pointless.

This is unfair. This was created using iWork Numbers.. not Excel that I have to deal with

That’s enough hate to begin with.. check in for more from time to time.